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Abstract
This work aimed to predict the wheat crop’s productivity based on annual rainfall rates and analysis in the manner of a qualitative response model. The research sample included a time series from 1995 to 2018, including the production and productivity of wheat crops in addition to the rainfall rates in the rainy and semi-dimensional region and the reality in northern Iraq. Three models have been used for a qualitative response, the linear probabilistic, Lagat and Probet models. The best one was the linear probability model. The dependent variable is the level of rain per year and the explanatory variable is the yield of a dunum of wheat. For the level of rain in which the crop yield was more than 250kg/dunum, the value 1 was considered for it, and if the dunum yield was less than 250kg/dunum, value was zero. Based on the results, the level of the annual rainfall affected the productivity of the dunum of the wheat crop because the riparian region is greatly affected by it. An increase of 1mm of rain annually led to the possibility of increasing the productivity of wheat crops by 0.2%kg/dunum.
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The authors transfer the copyrights of their papers to the Iranian Society of Ichthyology. However, the information could be used in accordance with the Creative Commons licence (Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)
References
- Al-Hani, A.S. 2023. Lectures in econometrics given to doctoral students for the academic year 2013-2014, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University of Baghdad.
- Al-Shahwani, N.Q.Q 2007. Trends in Economic Growth and Technological Progress (Regional and International), Center for Regional Studies, University of Mosul, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Iraq, 2007.
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- Gujarati, D.N. 2004. Basic Economics, McGraw, Hill. pp: 582-560.
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- Jawad, A.N. 2010, the comparison between methods of estimating economic functions with qualitative variables, Tikrit Journal of Administrative Sciences 6(18):
- Mahboub, A.A. 1998. The Origins of Econometrics - Theory and Practice - Al-Mansour University College, Baghdad, 1998.
- Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation, Central Agency for Statistics and Information Technology, annual statistical group, for several years.
References
Al-Hani, A.S. 2023. Lectures in econometrics given to doctoral students for the academic year 2013-2014, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University of Baghdad.
Al-Shahwani, N.Q.Q 2007. Trends in Economic Growth and Technological Progress (Regional and International), Center for Regional Studies, University of Mosul, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Iraq, 2007.
Attia, A.Q.A. 2000, Econometrics between theory and practice, University House for Printing and Publishing, Cairo, 2nd Edition.
Gujarati, D.N. 2004. Basic Economics, McGraw, Hill. pp: 582-560.
Gujarati, D.N. 2022. Basic econometrics. Prentice Hall.
Jawad, A.N. 2010, the comparison between methods of estimating economic functions with qualitative variables, Tikrit Journal of Administrative Sciences 6(18):
Mahboub, A.A. 1998. The Origins of Econometrics - Theory and Practice - Al-Mansour University College, Baghdad, 1998.
Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation, Central Agency for Statistics and Information Technology, annual statistical group, for several years.