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Abstract

Barbus cyri is one of the most abundant species in the Urmia Lake basin, being found across the basin. In this study, the impact of bioclimatic variables on future species distribution, as well as a shift in the species' response to several bioclimatic variables under the present and future conditions across various climatic scenarios, was quantified. Fish specimens were caught at various points of the Urmia Lake basin, and their occurrence was recorded. Using the MaxEnt model, the probability of presence for the species under existing conditions and in the future was simulated across the entire basin. Based on raster maps of the probability of species presence for present and future, response curves for both periods were obtained, and the overlapping area between the two curves was calculated over a gradient of bioclimatic variables. This study came out with the fact that the probability of incidence of the species in the future will significantly decline and will be confined to the southern parts of the basin. Moreover, the species will respond differently towards bioclimatic variables than the existing trend. The value of existing response curves and the value in the future has declined when compared along a time dimension, with a positive deviation indicating a larger change in habitat suitability of this species in the future.

Keywords

Barbus cyri Maxent Climate change Response Curve

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The authors transfer the copyrights of their papers to the Iranian Society of Ichthyology. However, the information could be used in accordance with the Creative Commons licence (Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)

How to Cite
POORBAGHER, H., EAGDERI, S., & SHABANLOO, H. (2025). A quantitative method to investigate the shift in response of <i>Barbus cyri</i> (De Filippi, 1865) to bioclimatic variables. Iranian Journal of Ichthyology, 12(1), 90–100. https://doi.org/10.22034/iji.v12i1.1074
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