Impact of climate change on the distribution of brown trout, Salmo trutta Linnaeus, 1758 (Teleostei: Salmonidae) using ensemble modelling approach in Iran

Hossein MOSTAFAVI, Jafar KAMBOUZIA

Abstract

In recent decades, climate change and other anthropogenic pressures have seriously influenced freshwater biodiversity to decline faster than terrestrial biodiversity. This trend is likely to be continued in the future. We assessed the impact of climate change on the distribution of brown trout in Iran by simulating their conditions under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in 2050 and 2080 by using species distribution models (SDMs) tool and ensemble forecasting approach. The results showed a significant reduction in the distribution range of this species (100%) in our database in all optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios. Moreover, no new potential sites were predicted in those scenarios. These outcomes seriously warn that a conservation and management plans are required to protect this species in future.


Keywords

Brown trout, Species Distribution Modelling, Conservation, Range distribution.

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References

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